Free NFL Pick: Baltimore Ravens Visit Optimistic Cincinnati Bengals
Saturday, December 31, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Analysis:
The Baltimore Ravens’ Super Bowl aspirations have ended on the road as a wild card team in each of the last three seasons. Baltimore is in position to host at least one playoff game this season. A win over the AFC North rival Bengals in Cincinnati on Sunday will give the Ravens their second division title and a first-round bye. They could be playing for much more, though, if things break right. If Buffalo upsets New England earlier in the day, Baltimore can lock up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
That’s a huge deal considering the Ravens went 8-0 at home for the first time in franchise history while struggling on the road (3-4). Cincinnati, meanwhile, will be playing for just its third playoff berth since 1990 in front of a rare sellout crowd. The surprising Bengals can clinch the AFC’s second wild card with a win. The teams have split the last six meetings with the Ravens winning the last game 31-24 on November 18. Baltimore, however, has dropped five of six in Cincinnati and could drop to the No. 5 seed with a loss and a Pittsburgh win at Cleveland.
Baltimore, which has triumphed four times on the road in the postseason under the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco combination, would certainly have some additional incentive to stay home for this year's playoffs.
Cincinnati grabbed a one-game advantage over the three-team grouping of Oakland, Tennessee and the New York Jets for the final Wild Card berth up for grabs after holding on for a 23-16 win over visiting Arizona this past Saturday. The Bengals roared out to a 23-0 lead after three quarters, then staved off a late Cardinals' rally to prevail for the second consecutive week.
The Bengals could also get in as the No. 6 seed if the Jets fall at Miami this weekend and either Denver or the Raiders lose as well.
If Cincinnati is to advance to the playoffs, it would mark a significant achievement for a team expected to be in a long rebuilding mode coming off a dreadful 4-12 season in 2010.
Cincinnati, which was dealt a 31-24 defeat by the Ravens in Baltimore on Nov. 20, owns a 4-3 record at Paul Brown Stadium this year. The Ravens, who will be shooting to finish 6-0 in divisional play for the first time in team annals, are 3-4 away from home in 2011 and have dropped five of their last six tilts with the Bengals held in Cincinnati.
Baltimore holds a 17-14 edge in its all-time series with Cincinnati and has taken the last two meetings between the clubs, having also bested the Bengals by a 13-7 count at M&T Bank Stadium in the 2010 regular-season finale. Cincinnati had defeated the Ravens three straight times prior to that defeat, including a 17-7 home win in 2009 and a 15-10 verdict at Paul Brown Stadium last season. Baltimore last topped the Bengals in Cincinnati via a 17-10 score in 2008, which also marks the last year the Ravens posted a home-and-home sweep of this set.
Cincinnati's Marvin Lewis is 10-7 against the Ravens, the team for which he served as defensive coordinator from 1996 through 2001 and helped the franchise to a win in Super Bowl XXXV, during his nine-year reign as the Bengals' head coach. Harbaugh has gone 4-3 against both Lewis and Cincinnati during his tenure with the Ravens.
Time & Venue:
- 4:15 PM ET, Sunday, January 1, 2012. Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
Last Week's results:
- Baltimore Ravens (-13) beats visiting Cleveland Browns 20-14.
- Cincinnati Bengals (-4) beats visiting Arizona Cardinals 23-16.
Last week's ATS:
- Favourite Baltimore Ravens (11-4) wins but does not cover
- Favourite Cincinnati Bengals (9-6) wins and covers.
NFL Football Odds: Ravens -3, O/U 39
Playoff Picture:
- Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens have clinched a playoff berth. They clinch the AFC North and a first-round bye with a win or a PIT loss. They clinch home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs with a win and a NE loss. COMMENT: It's been an up-and-down season for Baltimore, but bottom line, the Ravens still have a legitimate shot at the AFC's No. 2 seed.
- Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati clinches a wild-card spot with a win or either of the following scenarios: 1) NYJ loss + OAK loss; 2) NYJ loss + DEN loss. COMMENT: Bengals have a few ways to get into the playoffs, none simpler than beating Baltimore.
The Ravens have seven Pro Bowlers, including linebacker Terrell Suggs. Suggs (13 sacks, six forced fumbles) said he has no intentions of making his fifth trip to Hawaii because he plans on “being in practice with my teammates that week, getting ready for the Super Bowl.” Suggs’ and his teammates have the ability to back that bold statement up.
The Ravens’ defense is third in the league in scoring (16.7 ppg) and second against the run (91.8 ypg), but Baltimore will only go as far as inconsistent Flacco will take it. Flacco was just 11 of 24 with a season-low 132 yards in last week’s 20-14 win over Cleveland. He clearly missed WR Anquan Boldin, who is out until the playoffs after having knee surgery. Pro Bowl running back Ray Rice did his best to carry the offense, rushing for 87 yards and catching a 42-yard touchdown pass.
Despite being one of the biggest surprises in the NFL, the Bengals have continually played in front of lackluster home crowds. Last week’s 23-16 win over Arizona sold a mere 41,273 tickets for a stadium with a capacity of 65,535. That will change this week. A “buy one, get one free” promotion for season ticket holders helped coax just the second sellout this season. It’s a shame so few people have come out to watch a pretty solid team.
Receiver A.J. Green is the first Bengals rookie to make the Pro Bowl since Chris Collinsworth in 1981, and fellow rookie Andy Dalton is an alternate. Dalton threw two touchdowns in the win over Arizona. One of the scores went to Jerome Simpson, who did a somersault over a defender and landed on his feet in the end zone. Simpson racked up 152 yards in the first meeting with Green nursing a knee injury.
Cincinnati's young quarterback looked like a fresh-faced rookie in the first encounter, throwing three interceptions and having two of those picks immediately converted into critical Baltimore touchdowns in the second half. With wobbly RB Cedric Benson likely to find it tough to get untracked, the Bengals will need their field general to play like a battle-tested veteran against a Ravens team that's 8-0 this year when finishing either ahead or even in the turnover battle.
The absence of Boldin was felt in last week's game, as the Ravens mustered a season-low 122 passing yards against the Browns and Flacco was an off-target 11-of-24 on the afternoon. WR Torrey Smith's going to have to step up and show he can be a No. 1 receiver at this early stage of his career to help prevent Baltimore of becoming one-dimensional on offense, and having veteran Lee Evans -- a virtual non-factor all year in part due to injuries -- end his season-long vanishing act on Sunday would greatly aid the cause as well.
Though the Ravens were able to induce mistakes out of Dalton in the Week 11 clash, their usually air-tight pass defense was hit for several big plays that nearly allowed the Bengals to pull off a comeback -- and that was without the field-stretching Green even on the field. Baltimore must keep both the rookie standout and Simpson, a player who's had big games against the Ravens in the past, in reasonable check to come out on top.
The Bengals clinch their second playoff berth in three years even if they lose, but they would need both Oakland and the New York Jets lose as well.
The Ravens are seeking to finish 6-0 in the AFC North for the first time in franchise history.
Baltimore will clinch the division title and No. 2 seed if Pittsburgh loses to Cleveland. The Ravens own the tiebreaker by virtue of their season sweep of the Steelers.
Cincinnati is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Cincinnati is 1-4-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Baltimore is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
If there's a place where the Ravens are the most vulnerable, it's on the road, and the team's lack of success at Paul Brown Stadium in previous seasons is both noteworthy and breeds some caution. On the other hand, Baltimore possesses far more experience in high-stakes games such as this one, whereas the young Bengals are relative neophytes to the big stage.
The Ravens haven't had a problem getting up for and performing in these types of situations, as most of their 2011 losses have come against opponents that will be sitting home come playoff time. And the fact that Baltimore is the more consistent and overall superiorly-talented of these two combatants certainly carries some weight. The Bengals are just 1-6 this season against foes presently above .500, and might just be not quite ready for prime time.
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NFL Football Pick: Take Ravens.
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Tags
a.j. green - afc north - andy dalton - anquan boldin - arizona cardinals - baltimore ravens - cedric benson - cincinnati bengals - cleveland browns - jerome simpson
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