NCAA Final Four Predictions: The Year of the Underdog
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
by BetUS.com
Just as we all expected at the beginning of March Madness, the VCU Rams and the Butler Bulldogs survived the gauntlet of their regions and are now in the Final Four. Glad we’ve put all those trivial formalities behind us. Now it’s time to get rid of my unnecessary sarcasm and break down these wildly unexpected matchups between VCU-Butler and Kentucky-UConn.
#11 VCU Rams vs. #8 Butler Bulldogs
Saturday, April 2nd --- 6:00pm EST
NCAA Final Four Odds: Butler -2.5 (133.5)
It would be astonishing in itself if either one of these teams had made it to the Final Four. The fact that both teams have come this far is nothing short of a miracle and, to put this matchup into perspective, the seed total (as in 8+11 = 19) is the highest combination of any two teams in Final Four history.
Throughout the week you’ve probably been frying-panned over the head with historical facts about how incredible this matchup is, so let’s just cut to the chase.
The Butler Bulldogs return to the Final Four for a second time despite the NCAA Odds, and this time they’re favored. The issue for Butler will be getting star center Matt Howard to match up against opposing big man Jamie Skeen of VCU, who came to life against the towering front court of Kansas to post 26 points and 10 rebounds.
As much scoring as there’s apparently been in VCU, it hasn’t been enough to push the total. In terms of basketball betting, VCU has actually gone over in just 2-of-5 games thus far.
Skeen’s outwardly presence underneath is well rewarded by VCU which has made a tournament leading 53 shots from 3-point range while averaging 43.3 percent from the field. Those insane shots come from a bevy of players as well – VCU doesn’t rely on any one player specifically.
Aside from ousting Pittsburgh as major -8.0 point underdogs, Butler has found themselves rallying in big moments to beat tight spreads. The Butler Bulldogs have won their past four games by an average of 3.3 points per game and are 4-0 SU and ATS in the tournament thus far.
The idea of Butler keeping up from range with VCU is the ungodly part about backing the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs have made 33 threes in four games during March Madness, and though they have a great perimeter defense that was able to contain Florida, I’m just not sure they have the athletes that can keep up with VCU for a full game.
I usually don’t grade things like “determination” and “hustle” all that high, but it’s impossible to ignore that VCU’s ability to push the pace of this game is the big x-factor.
Can Butler keep up where Purdue, Georgetown, Florida State, USC and top-seeded Kansas couldn’t? What makes you think that Butler can?
BetUS Sportsbook Final Four Prediction – VCU +2.5 and UNDER
#4 Kentucky Wildcats vs. #3 UConn Huskies
Saturday, April 2nd --- 8:45pm EST
NCAA Final Four Odds: Kentucky -3.5 (140.0)
While just as seemingly improbable as Butler-VCU, there’s at least a ton of name brand value in the matchup between Kentucky and the UConn Huskies. A lot of people predicted that UConn would escape the West Region despite the presences of teams like San Diego State, Duke and (apparently) the Arizona Wildcats.
UConn’s underdog run has been nothing short of amazing, especially from a betting standpoint. Though they failed to cover as -3.5 point favorites against Arizona, they’re still 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in the tournament settings of March Madness and the Big East Tournament.
In defense of Kentucky, a lot of us didn’t see them coming, and frankly we should have. Much of my own concern with the Wildcats was that Jon Calipari wasn’t a great coach, but I think he’s shut the doubters up in that regard. Dismantling UNC and surviving Ohio State will have that effect.
Kentucky won the SEC tournament and has gone 10-0 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in the 10 games since their last loss, to Arkansas in late February. Even though they practically flew under the radar en route to a Final Four berth, Kentucky deserves to be favored simply because they have a more balanced team than people like me are prepared to give them credit for.
Nobody deserves a bigger pat on the back for coming up big when it matters than Josh Harrellson, who has averaged 14.7 points and 9.0 rebounds per game.
As always, this game comes down to Kemba Walker. Can Kentucky stop him? They sure as hell put the clamps on Harrison Barnes and Jared Sullinger when it mattered. But Walker is a different player. Connecticut’s guard has averaged an unreal 26.8 points per game.
Kentucky has shot down great teams thus far, and as unreal as UConn has been this tournament it’s not like they don’t have issues. They need Walker to have a huge game because Kentucky is so complete.
Of course, we’ve said that before about UConn’s opponents. Nobody has stopped Walker, and while Kentucky may have the best overall chance of doing so, there’s no reason to jump off the Huskies’ money train right now.
BetUS Sportsbook Final Four Predictions – UConn +3.5 and OVER
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basketball betting - butler bulldogs - final four - harrison barnes - jamie skeen - jared sullinger - jon calipari - josh harrellson - kemba walker - kentucky wildcats
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